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Changing the score

“Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability”;[1]  an axiom, in the context of data, you’d think would either drive or inhibit progress. And you’d be right. This well-rehearsed paradox is playing out relentlessly in the context of the global pandemic and endeavours to disagree on which ‘science to follow’ in optimising our chances …

Trust: a small word but huge impact

If there’s one word that sits at the heart of this whole crisis, it’s trust. It’s a small word, but its impact is huge as it underpins almost everything we do, is woven into the fabric of how our society is structured and the relationships and interactions we engage in on a day-to-day basis. In …

He had it Cummings?

WANTED: People keen to focus on research and real stuff. Serious message below. I just about know who Duncan Cummings is. Just as I was getting to grips with social media, headlines were eclipsed by another single-issue. In addition to returning interesting Google search results, Dominic Cummings if he does nothing else, he fascinates. Apparently. …

What is the acceptable level of risk for Covid-19?

During the current coronavirus lockdown there had been a dramatic reduction in road traffic and hence, presumably, a dramatic reduction in casualties from road traffic accidents – something that is highly desirable. Why did this have to wait for coronavirus? We could have instituted a national lockdown at any time in order to reduce road …

What the PM got wrong

We have just been treated to an address to the nation by Boris Johnston. He has been under pressure to move the country forward through this crisis and to give the people reassurance and hope. In this regard, he was justified in highlighting successes to date: the lockdown has protected the NHS; deaths have been …

Wait a minute – what does ‘peak’ mean?

If there was ever a time when you need to listen to every single word, this might well be it. The government and mainstream media have been claiming and reporting that we passed the peak on the 8th April – take this compelling article by the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519. And yet over the weekend, the few …

Who will die from the Covid-19 epidemic and lockdown?

Background When a novel virus infects a population unhindered, it will spread exponentially, some will die, most will recover and develop immunity and as herd immunity increases, viral spread diminishes and the epidemic resolves.  During its course, the consequences may be catastrophic, as in 1918.  Thus, governments stepped in with population lockdown to reduce the …